PUBLISHED PAPERS #03.02
| Rasim Aliyev. The Impact of Globalization on Azerbaijan's Economic Growth: A Z-Reasoning Model Based on the KOF Globalization Index |
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| Abstract. This study investigates the impact of globalization on Azerbaijan's GDP per capita growth rate using the KOF Globalization Index, which measures economic, social, and political dimensions of globalization. By employing Fuzzy C-means clustering and Z-reasoning models, the research establishes IF-THEN rules to predict the relationship between globalization indices and economic growth. The findings reveal that while the Z-reasoning model provides insights into specific combinations of globalization indices corresponding to distinct growth outcomes, its predictions show limited alignment with actual data, particularly during periods of economic shocks such as the 2016 and 2020 crude oil price declines. The study underscores the importance of incorporating external factors, like commodity price fluctuations, into future models to better capture the complexities of Azerbaijan's oil-dependent economy. The results highlight the need for diversified economic strategies to mitigate vulnerability to external shocks and promote sustainable growth. This research contributes to the literature by introducing a predictive model based on fuzzy logic as a novel approach to analyzing globalization's impact on economic growth in Azerbaijan. |
| Keywords: globalization, economic growth, KOF Globalization Index, Fuzzy C-means clustering, Z-reasoning model, Azerbaijan, predictive modeling |
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| DOI: https://doi.org/10.30546/MaCoSEP2025.1062 |